Stable, for now
- FSR distinctively focusses on the systemic aspects, rather than the individual components, of the financial sector and evaluates the soft spots in the Indian scene.
- According to the latest FSR covering June-December 2011, the domestic financial system remains robust.
- The banking system is resilient enough to tide over unexpected adverse macroeconomic developments.
- Notably, all components of domestic demand have decelerated.
- Inflation pressures remain elevated, driven by a number of factors.
- Risks to the external sector have increased.
- Trade deficit and, along with it, the current account deficit have widened.
- Equity and financial markets continue to be volatile, mainly due to adverse developments abroad.
- There have been large transaction losses on foreign exchange exposures.
- Repayment of external commercial borrowings has become more expensive.
- As the year progresses, the slowdown in GDP growth will make the Indian financial sector more vulnerable.
- Banks will have simultaneously to address the related challenges of lower asset quality and raising additional capital, the latter also to comply with the Basel III requirements.
- The FSR once again gives a clean chit to the Indian financial sector, but warns of troubles ahead.