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Snakes and charmers
- US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Pakistan that keeping snakes in one’s backyard and hoping that they will only bite the neighbours is not a sensible policy. Clinton was talking about the Haqqani network and other militant groups long nurtured by the Pakistan army and the ISI to bleed the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
- The army chief, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, in turn, reminded Washington that Pakistan is a nuclear power and that the US should think ten times before it tried an Iraq or Afghanistan in his country.
- India’s real problem is not about the argument between Washington and Rawalpindi degenerating into a firefight. What must concern Delhi, instead, is the possibility of a deal between the US and General Kayani that will result in the deliberate diminishing of Afghanistan’s national sovereignty.
- Washington appears to have convinced itself that it does not have too many levers to compel the Pakistan army to change its behaviour in Afghanistan.
- As she left Pakistan, Clinton toned down the talk of unilateral American military action against the Haqqani network. She also has dropped the demand on the Pakistan army to launch military operations against the Haqqani network.
- Above all, Clinton appears to have conceded that the Haqqanis have a place in the political future of Afghanistan and is now betting that the ISI will deliver the militant network to the negotiating table.
- Rawalpindi has also argued against building a large Afghan national army, by saying that Kabul will never have the financial resources to sustain it. It has also warned that a large Afghan armed force will eventually disintegrate into militias that pose a threat to all.
- Pakistan’s objections to India’s presence and role in Afghanistan are well known.
- With a decisive phase in Afghanistan at hand, India must do all it can to preserve Kabul’s territorial integrity and independence and offer more reasonable alternatives to regional stability.
Clinton in Pakistan
- The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, accompanied by a high-powered delegation, is headed to Pakistan this week to make yet another effort to find common ground in Afghanistan.
- Admiral Mullen had a few weeks ago accused the Pakistan army of deliberately using terrorist groups like the Haqqani network to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan and destabilise the government in Kabul.
- Reports from Washington say Clinton is walking the middle path in the administration between two very divergent positions. On the one hand are those who insist that the interests of Washington and Rawalpindi are in fundamental contradiction with each other. On the other hand, sections of the administration argue that Washington must offer more incentives to the Pakistan army to win its cooperation.
- According to reports from Kabul, US and Afghan forces have this week begun “Operation Knife Edge” against the Haqqani network, which is at the centre of the current tension between Washington and Rawalpindi.
- Washington had apparently given Rawalpindi three options on the Haqqani network: “kill them, let us kill them, or get them to reconcile with Kabul.” General Kayani has refused to launch operations against the network
- Pakistan army wants the Haqqani network to be a part of new political arrangements in Kabul
- General Kayani, in a briefing to Pakistan’s national assembly this week, was confident that US troops will not enter Pakistan’s territory. He reminded the members that Pakistan was a nuclear power, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan which had to endure US military interventions.
- US national security adviser Tom Donilon visits Delhi next week for consultations with his Indian counterpart Shivshankar Menon
- Menon and Donilon will also set the stage for a meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama on the margins of either the G-20 summit in Paris or the East Asian conclave in Bali.
Containing the Pakistan Army
- The ‘C’ word has finally appeared in the American discourse on Pakistan.
- Bruce Riedel has called on the Obama Administration to adopt a strategy of containment against the Pakistan army.
- ‘Containment’ is the strategy the United States had adopted towards the Soviet Union after the Second World War. It called for sustained external pressure on Soviet Russia in order to produce internal regime change.
- If adopted towards the Pakistan army, a strategy of containment would be a significant departure from the habitual temptation to simply buy Rawalpindi's affections.
- Bruce Riedel is a former CIA officer who worked for several American presidents and shaped Washington's policies towards South Asia and the Middle East.
- Central to the rethinking is Riedel's recognition that the strategic interests of the United States and Pakistan in Afghanistan are "in conflict, not harmony and will remain that way as long as Pakistan's army controls Pakistan's strategic policies".
- He calls for trade concessions and a special outreach to women in order to empower entrepreneurs and women, two groups he believes 'are outside the army's control and who are interested in peace'.
- Among his other proposals are deep cuts in military aid and a 'strategic dialogue' with India on Pakistan, which he bets would concentrate minds in Rawalpindi.
- Instead of relying on the ISI to stabilise Afghanistan, Riedel calls for stronger support to the Afghan security forces and extended Western support to Kabul even as the U.S. reduces military presence there.
‘Noora Khusti’: Rawalpindi prevails over Washington
- The outgoing Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen’s explosive declaration that the Haqqani network is a ‘veritable arm’ of the ISI, provided the United States an opportunity to launch an honest domestic debate about Pakistan and end its tolerance of Rawalpindi’s support for terror in Afghanisan and India.
- Like the Bush Administration before it, the Obama Administration is finding it hard to change the fundamentals of Washington’s dependence on Pakistan army for the conduct of its Afghan policy.
- Obama came to power promising to hold Pakistan accountable to the massive aid it was receiving from the United States. He threatened to bomb Pakistan if he found terror sanctuaries on its soil.
- Obama stepped up the drone attacks on Pakistan’s terror hideouts across the border with Afghanistan and ordered the raid and execution of Osama bin Ladin in Abbottabad.
- For one the U.S. needs access to Pakistani territory to operate in Afghanistan. Despite the recent effort to develop alternatives, the supply route from Karachi port is the main logistical support line for U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan. Two, the U.S. relies on a measure of cooperation from the ISI and access to other sources of intelligence in Pakistan in its war on terror. Three, there is a strong belief in Washington that no political settlement in Afghanistan will work without support from Rawalpindi.
- For one the U.S. needs access to Pakistani territory to operate in Afghanistan. Despite the recent effort to develop alternatives, the supply route from Karachi port is the main logistical support line for U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan.
